EMEA

 
 

Outlook for 2016

The Year of Continental Europe

The survey results suggest that despite ‘full pricing’ in several EMEA markets, international and domestic investors remain undeterred. More than half of respondents intend to expand their portfolio holdings in the region. Additional allocations to property by multi-asset funds, especially pension funds, continue with only 11% intending to decrease allocations in EMEA and globally. The ‘weight of money’ and the international ‘search for yield’ do not appear to have dissipated as a key driver of global property demand. Despite survey results that suggest that the UK remains the key EMEA target, improving occupier markets and rental growth in Continental Europe suggests that it may see a further boost in investment volumes. EMEA- domiciled investors are among the most bullish globally about volume growth in their own region (56%), only second to US investors (63%).

While a political solution to Europe’s immigration crisis remains unresolved, the fact that Germany has already committed to taking in a large number of refugees could well act as a stimulus to its economy and its real estate market. It is understood that vacant commercial buildings may be brought into use for temporary refugee hostels and sheer numbers will drive demand in the affordable rented housing sector. 

The UK referendum on membership of the EU must take place before the end of 2017 and media coverage is already ramping up. Interview responses suggest that it is not of major concern to investors, but there could be some market volatility in the months leading up to the vote.

SIX KEY THEMES

THAT WILL SHAPE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE IN EMEA IN 2016

European volumes to increase

European volumes are expected to increase further in 2016; however fewer investors expect to be net buyers.

US investors remain committed to Europe

A third of US investors planning to invest in EMEA in the next 12 months. The focus of US private equity is shifting from UK to Continental Europe.

The UK, Germany and France are investors’ primary targets.

The UK, Germany and France are investors’ primary targets in EMEA in 2016. Outside the core, Spain ranks higher than the Netherlands and Italy.

Asian captial will play a major role

Investors from outside EMEA will target London, Paris and the key German cities, with Madrid also on the radar. Our survey suggests that Asian capital will continue to focus on London and German cities in 2016, but with an eye on pricing levels.

CBD offices are the preferred sector

CBD offices are EMEA investors’ preferred sector in the next 12 months, followed by industrial and logistics in the UK and shopping centers in Continental Europe

Continental investors to increase debt

There will be a large increase in the number of continental investors intending to use leverage in the next 12 months, supported by an expected modest loosening of underwriting criteria

“The Chinese are sitting on a huge pile of dollar reserves and there will be a process of transferring this wealth into real assets. Europe stands to benefit.”

UK Fund Manager

View the full Global Investor Outlook 2016 Report

 

Colliers International Global Researchers

Primary Authors

Mark Charlton
Head of UK Research and Forecasting
mark.charlton@colliers.com
+44 20 7487 1720

Bruno Berretta
Senior Research Analyst, EMEA
bruno.berretta@colliers.com
+44 20 7344 6938

Walter Boettcher
Director of UK Research and Forecasting
walter.boettcher@colliers.com
+44 20 7344 6581

Regional contacts

USA
Pete Culliney
Director of Research
pete.culliney@colliers.com
+1 212 716 3698

EMEA
Damian Harrington
Head of EMEA Research
damian.harrington@colliers.com
+358 9 856 77 600

Asia-Pacific
Andrew Haskins
Executive Director, Research & Advisory
andrew.haskins@colliers.com
+852 2822 0511